J&K Weather Update for 30 Jan to 1st Feb 2024

30 Jan – 01st Feb:

A fresh Western Disturbance is set to impact Jammu and Kashmir from today until February 1st.
Under its influence, rain/snow activities are likely to commence from today morning onwards, starting from higher reaches. Towards evening, a spell of rain is expected in parts of Jammu region, particularly in Udhampur, Kishtwar, and Doda districts.

By tomorrow (31st Jan) morning, most areas in Jammu and Kashmir should have received a spell of rain/snow.
On 31st Jan, rain/snow activities will continue across Jammu and Kashmir, although central and south Kashmir parts may see less activities during the daytime.

The temperatures are expected to fall significantly from 31st Jan evening and as such snowfall chances will also increase in plains.

Between 31st Jan evening and 01st February, Jammu region is expected to receive moderate to heavy rain/snow. Its higher reaches are expected to receive heavy snowfall. Snowfall is also expected in some parts of Ramban district including Banihal, Kishtwar district, some parts of Doda district including Bhaderwah, and higher reaches of Kathua district. The weather system can dump 2 to 5 feet of snow over Sinthan Pass.

Lightning and Thunderstorm can also occur in parts of Jammu region during this period. Stay Alert!

Between 31st Jan and 01st Feb, snowfall can also occur in south Kashmir plains, especially in parts of Shopian, Kulgam, and Anantnag districts.
Area wise variations in snow sccumulations are expected.
No snow = 10% chance
1cm – 2 inches = 35% chance
2 – 6 inches = 35% chance
Over 6 inches = 20% chance
(The chances have been distributed out of 100)

There are also chances of snowfall in central Kashmir, however, compared to other areas, it will be less impacted by this weather system.
No snow = 30% chance
1cm – 2 inches = 45% chance
2 – 6 inches = 20% chance
Over 6 inches = 5% chance
(The chances have been distributed out of 100)

For plains of north Kashmir, the weather system’s impact remains unclear regarding snowfall.
No snow = 20% chance
1cm – 2 inches = 30% chance
2 – 6 inches = 30% chance
Over 6 inches = 20% chance
(The chances have been distributed out of 100)

Good amount of snowfall is also expected over tourist places such as Gulmarg, Sonamarg, Pahalgam, and Doodhpathri.

Weather is expected to go completely dry from 02 Feb morning/afternoon.

03 – 04 Feb:

Another Western Disturbance (light to moderate in intensity) is expected to affect from 03 Feb afternoon/evening. The weather system will be associated with colder temperatures. Under its influence, light to moderate snowfall can occur in plains of Kashmir.

More details regarding it will be shared later.


1. The weather system area-wise may not behave as has been forecasted. The fluctuations can even result in more rain/snow over central Kashmir than south Kashmir.

2. Landslides/shooting stones are expected to occur over Jammu-Srinagar National Highway. It is advised to postpone your journey if it is especially planned for 01st February.

3. For Tourists, Sinthan Pass may remain closed for many days now, and as such, should plan to opt for Sonamarg, Pahalgam, or Gulmarg to experience snow.

Forecast Insights: ‘Kashmir Weather’


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