Trade Setup for September 15: Top 15 things to know before the opening bell

Any recovery is likely to face selling pressure unless the Nifty 50 manages a sustainable close above the 23,600 level. They identify 23,200–23,000 as a crucial support zone, with a break below 23,000 potentially triggering a major downward move.

Any recovery likely to face selling pressure unless Nifty manages sustainable close above 23,600

23,200–23,000 likely to be crucial support zone

On upside, 23,500–23,600 zone expected to act as immediate key resistance

The Nifty 50 closed off the day’s low after buying interest emerged at lower levels, declining 0.34 percent on September 11. However, the overall structure remains bearish, with all moving averages trending downward. Rising crude oil prices, which approached $110 a barrel, along with US 10-year bond yields nearing the 5 percent mark ahead of the FOMC meeting, also weighed on market sentiment.

According to experts, any recovery is likely to face selling pressure unless the index manages a sustainable close above the 23,600 level.

They identify 23,200–23,000 as a crucial support zone, with a break below 23,000 potentially triggering a major downward move. On the upside, the 23,500–23,600 zone is expected to act as the immediate key resistance.

Here are 15 data points we have collated to help you spot profitable trades:

1) Key Levels For The Nifty 50 (23,398)

Resistance based on pivot points: 23,442, 23,493, and 23,576

Support based on pivot points: 23,276, 23,225, and 23,143

Special Formation: The Nifty 50 formed a bullish candle following a recovery from a gap-down opening. However, the lower-high, lower-low structure remains intact. Hence, sustained follow-up buying is required to confirm a meaningful recovery. All key moving averages continued to trend downward, while the index approached the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement level of the rally from 22,182 to 24,774. The daily RSI remained below the 30 level at 27.22, while, the MACD extended its downtrend, with the red histogram bar widening for the fifth consecutive session. Overall, these technical indicators suggest that the bearish trend remains firmly in place, despite the recent recovery.

2) Key Levels For The Bank Nifty (56,607)

Resistance based on pivot points: 56,679, 56,902, and 57,264

Support based on pivot points: 55,956, 55,732, and 55,371

Resistance based on Fibonacci retracement: 57,285, 59,261

Support based on Fibonacci retracement: 55,749, 55,050

Special Formation: The Bank Nifty rebounded after a sharp gap-down opening to end 0.24 percent higher on Friday, specifically after finding support near the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement level of the rally from the May low to the June high. Because the index closed above the previous day’s high, follow-up, sustainable buying interest is required for any further recovery. However, the index remains below all key moving averages, with both short-term and medium-term averages trending downward. Furthermore, the RSI inched higher to 41.05 but stayed below its signal line, while the MACD sustained well below the zero line, even though histogram weakness faded following the expansion of red bars for eight straight sessions. All of these factors indicate the broader medium-term downtrend remains intact despite recovery from support zone.

3) Nifty Call Options Data

According to the weekly options data, the 23,800 strike holds the maximum Call open interest (with 1.15 crore contracts). This level can act as a key resistance level for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 23,700 strike (1 crore contracts) and 23,500 strike (92.99 lakh contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 23,800 strike, which saw an addition of 20.61 lakh contracts, followed by the 23,300 and 23,350 strikes, which added 18.47 lakh and 14.62 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 23,500 strike, which shed 24.09 lakh contracts, followed by the 23,900 and 23,450 strikes, which shed 11.86 lakh and 9.72 lakh contracts, respectively.

4) Nifty Put Options Data

On the Put side, the maximum Put open interest was seen at the 23,300 strike (with 1.38 crore contracts), which can act as a key support level for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 23,000 strike (1.23 crore contracts) and the 23,200 strike (1.1 crore contracts).

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 23,300 strike, which saw an addition of 75.59 lakh contracts, followed by the 23,250 and 23,200 strikes, which added 61.76 lakh and 36.45 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 23,500 strike, which shed 19.99 lakh contracts, followed by the 23,600 and 23,700 strikes, which shed 8.75 lakh and 7.02 lakh contracts, respectively.

5) Bank Nifty Call Options Data

According to the monthly options data, the 57,500 strike holds the maximum Call open interest, with 21.36 lakh contracts. This can act as a key resistance level for the index in the short term. It was followed by the 58,000 strike (15.31 lakh contracts) and the 57,000 strike (8.39 lakh contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 56,000 strike (with the addition of 80,460 contracts), followed by the 56,200 strike (34,290 contracts) and 55,900 strike (32,490 contracts). The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 57,000 strike, which shed 86,100 contracts, followed by the 57,500 and 56,400 strikes, which shed 61,530 and 38,730 contracts, respectively.

6) Bank Nifty Put Options Data

On the Put side, the maximum Put open interest was concentrated at the 57,500 strike (with 16.71 lakh contracts), which can act as a key level for the index in the short term. This was followed by the 56,000 strike (8.68 lakh contracts) and the 57,000 strike (8.61 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 56,000 strike (which added 1.32 lakh contracts), followed by the 55,700 strike (91,200 contracts) and 55,800 strike (73,770 contracts). The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 57,500 strike, which shed 36,090 contracts, followed by the 57,900 and 58,000 strikes which shed 28,200 and 13,200 contracts, respectively.

7) Funds Flow (Rs crore)

8) Put-Call Ratio

The Nifty Put-Call ratio (PCR), which indicates the mood of the market, jumped to 1.01 on September 11, compared to 0.77 in previous session.

The increasing PCR, or being higher than 0.7 or surpassing 1, means traders are selling more Put options than Call options, which generally indicates the firming up of a bullish sentiment in the market. If the ratio falls below 0.7 or moves towards 0.5, then it indicates selling in Calls is higher than selling in Puts, reflecting a bearish mood in the market.

9) India VIX

The fear gauge, India VIX, jumped 4.15 percent to 12.285 and moved above its 50-day EMA, signaling increasing caution among market bulls. Any decisive move above the 13–14 zone could bring major discomfort for bulls.

10) Long Build-up (41 Stocks)

A long build-up was seen in 41 stocks. An increase in open interest (OI) and price indicates a build-up of long positions.

11) Long Unwinding (56 Stocks)

56 stocks saw a decline in open interest (OI) along with a fall in price, indicating long unwinding.

12) Short Build-up (73 Stocks)

73 stocks saw an increase in OI along with a fall in price, indicating a build-up of short positions.

13) Short-Covering (45 Stocks)

45 stocks saw short-covering, meaning a decrease in OI, along with a price increase.

14) High Delivery Trades

Here are the stocks that saw a high share of delivery trades. A high share of delivery reflects investing (as opposed to trading) interest in a stock.

15) Stocks Under F&O Ban

Securities banned under the F&O segment include companies where derivative contracts cross 95 percent of the market-wide position limit.

Stocks added to F&O ban: Nil

Stocks retained in F&O ban: Bandhan Bank, Inox Wind, Kaynes Technology India, Manappuram Finance, SAIL

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