𝗪𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 – 𝗗𝗲𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗹𝗲𝗱 𝗔𝘀𝘀𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁
𝗪𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 – 𝗗𝗲𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗹𝗲𝗱 𝗔𝘀𝘀𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁
A significant surge of monsoon moisture is expected to reach Jammu and Kashmir from tonight onwards. While the recent spells have largely been driven by monsoon winds alone, an approaching Western Disturbance will now interact with the monsoon flow, pushing abundant moisture deep into the Kashmir region and enhancing rainfall intensity across the Union Territory.
The most intense weather activity is expected over the next 48 hours, although intermittent showers are likely to continue on Thursday and during the following days as well.
Observations over the past few days indicate that even with comparatively lower moisture availability, both Jammu and Kashmir have witnessed short-duration but highly intense rainfall spells. Since much of the UT remained largely dry during the daytime today, atmospheric instability has increased once again. Higher daytime temperatures have also enhanced moisture-holding capacity, creating a more favourable environment for intense thunderstorms and heavy rainfall.
𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝗝𝗮𝗺𝗺𝘂 𝗥𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗼𝗻?
Jammu region is expected to witness heavy to extremely heavy rainfall during this period. Intense spells can trigger flash floods, and landslides in many areas.
𝗪𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗧𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗯𝗲 𝗔𝗻𝘆 𝗙𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗱𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗝𝗮𝗺𝗺𝘂?
The forecast rainfall is substantial enough to suggest a high probability of water levels crossing Flood Alert Marks at several locations. Smaller streams and nallahs could overflow, while major rivers are expected to witness a rapid rise in water levels. Some rivers may even approach or cross their Danger Mark, depending on where the heaviest rainfall occurs.
A more precise assessment of flood severity will only be possible through continuous hourly monitoring of rainfall distribution and river responses.
𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝗞𝗮𝘀𝗵𝗺𝗶𝗿 𝗥𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗼𝗻?
Forecast models broadly agree that rainfall in Kashmir will be more intense than the usual light to moderate showers. Instead of scattered weak rainfall, several areas may experience prolonged heavy showers lasting for hours without significant breaks.
Overall, widespread moderate to heavy rainfall is expected across the Valley, with isolated locations receiving very heavy rainfall.
𝗪𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗧𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗯𝗲 𝗔𝗻𝘆 𝗙𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗱𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗞𝗮𝘀𝗵𝗺𝗶𝗿?
𝙁𝙡𝙖𝙨𝙝 𝙁𝙡𝙤𝙤𝙙𝙨:
The risk of flash floods is very high, particularly in vulnerable hilly and mountainous areas. Localized cloudburst events also cannot be ruled out.
𝙈𝙖𝙟𝙤𝙧 𝙏𝙧𝙞𝙗𝙪𝙩𝙖𝙧𝙞𝙚𝙨:
Rivers and tributaries such as the Lidder and Vishow Nallah are expected to respond quickly to intense rainfall, with a sharp rise in water levels. Whether these rivers cross their official flood declaration levels will depend on where the heaviest precipitation becomes concentrated. At present, forecast models differ on whether the maximum rainfall will occur over South, Central, or North Kashmir. Therefore, the situation warrants high vigilance and continuous monitoring.
𝙅𝙝𝙚𝙡𝙪𝙢 𝙍𝙞𝙫𝙚𝙧:
The Jhelum is also expected to witness a significant rise in water level. Although current levels remain relatively low, persistent heavy rainfall can alter the situation rapidly within 24 hours. There is a chance that water levels may approach the Flood Alert Level, but whether they progress further will depend entirely on the spatial distribution and intensity of rainfall.
It is also important to note that reaching the Flood Declaration Level does not automatically mean floodwaters will inundate residential areas. The Jhelum crossed these levels last September without widespread urban flooding. Such levels primarily indicate the need for heightened monitoring and preparedness.
𝗜𝗺𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘆
* Landslides and shooting stones: The risk will remain extremely high on mountain roads and vulnerable slopes. Avoid unnecessary travel through hilly terrain, mountain passes, and landslide-prone stretches.
* Flash floods and cloudbursts: Conditions remain highly favourable for both. People living near streams, nallahs, and low-lying areas should remain alert.
* Lightning: Frequent thunderstorms may produce dangerous lightning. Avoid standing under isolated trees, near electric poles, towers, or other tall objects during thunderstorms.
𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗜𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀: 𝗞𝗮𝘀𝗵𝗺𝗶𝗿 𝗪𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿